基于中国主要贸易伙伴双边数据的贸易收支弹性研究

有别于传统的总量分析,利用双边贸易收支模型考量人民币汇率波动与双边贸易收支的关系,能更深刻地揭示汇率波动与我国贸易收支的关系.研究发现,无论是在短期还是在长期,对不同国家而言,不仅双边汇率对双边贸易收支的弹性系数大小不一样,而且双边汇率的波动对贸易收支的影响方向也并不一致,这也说明了采用双边汇率和双边贸易收支样本比总量样本更具有针对性和实践意义.

A Study of Trade Balance Based on Bilateral Data Between China and Its Lagest Trade Partners

Different from traditional studies employed aggregate trade data,in this paper we use bilateral data to investigate the relationship between real exchange rate volatility and trade balance.We test the relationship between China and her largest trade partners and find that the relationship is not identical in case of different countries whenever in long term or in short term.The results show that bilateral data is more appropriate in analyzing the relationship.