中国贸易条件变化和波动情况的经验分析

本文在联合国统计司Comtrade数据库的基础上对中国贸易条件的变化和波动情况进行了经验分析，结果发现：（1）从1987—2006年，中国的初级产品贸易条件有一定程度的改善，而整体贸易条件和制成品贸易条件则出现了明显的恶化。（2）对贸易条件波动性分阶段考察的结果表明，在中国加入WTO前后，不管是整体贸易条件还是分类商品贸易条件，其波动性都是显著下降的。（3）中国贸易条件的波动主要是由于低技术产品大的出口份额、中技术产品大的进口份额以及中技术产品进出口贸易发展的不均衡所造成的。

An Empirical Analysis on the Variations and Fluctuations in China Trade Terms

Based on the Comtrade database of the United Nations Statistics Division,this paper analyses the variations and fluctuations in China's terms of trade.Our conclusions are as follows.(1)Trade terms for preliminary products have been improved to some extent.However,the overall trade terms and those for fin- ished goods are obviously deteriorating.(2)Before and after China's accession to the WTO,the volatility of both overall and specific trade terms is sharply deteriorating.(3)The fluctuations in China trade ...