The canada-U.S. free trade agreement

This article examines the forces that caused Canada and the United States to negotiate the free trade agreement, its principal provisions, the projected welfare gains, and estimated labor adjustments. Focusing on the latter, the impact on manufacturing employment is expected to be positive but small in the United States and negative but small in Canada; with the agriculture and resource sectors losing employment shares in both countries. The impact on services will be negligible in the United States and positive in Canada. Focusing on specific industries, nonferrous metals sector appears vulnerable in the United States, while textiles, clothing, furniture and fixtures, electrical and nonelectrical equipment and machinery, nonmetallic mineral products, and fabricated metal products appear vulnerable in Canada. However, actual job losses could be significantly circumscribed by moderate growth and employee turnover, and within vulnerable Canadian industries, there are pockets of significant strength such as in office furniture and telecommunications equipment.