经济评价中“决策油价”确定方法的探讨

原油销售价格是油田开发项目必须及石油石化项目经济评价应采用的重在参数之一,但随着我国与国际原料市场的接轨,近年来原油价格变化非常大,油田开发项目的建设周期又比较长,原油价格常常具有可变性,如何利用该参数进行项目经济评价是摆在我们面前的一个重要课题。引入“决策油价”的概念,并根据对世界的油价史和油价影响因素的分析,结合油介变化动态,确定“决策油价”进行经济评价工作,对冀对进一步开展该类项目的经济评价工作起到参考作用。

A Discussion on Methods of Determining "Decision-Making Oil Price"in Economic Evaluation

Oil selling price is one of important parameters used for economic evaluation of development project of oil field.The crude oil market in our country is bringing into line with international market.In recent years,oil price has had great fluctuation;it went down to S|10/barrel in 1998 and up to S|34/barrel in 2000 with the difference of more than 20 dollars.Because the construction period of development project of oil field is rather long and the crude oil price generally has changeability,there will be uncertainties if the "current price" is used for the economic evaluation work,so that how to utilize this parameter for the economic evaluation is an important problem before us.This paper tries to introduce the concept of "decision-making oil price" and determine the "decision-making oil price",based on the analysis of the history of global oil price changes and influencing factors of oil price and combined with the oil price changing trends,for the economic evaluation work.It is hoped that this work will be a reference for the economic evaluation of this kind of project,which will proceed for the future