先进制造业与现代服务业融合发展与互动效应实证研究——以镇江市为例

基于2010—2020年镇江市时间序列数据，从行业异质性视角测度先进制造业与现代服务业的耦合协调度，考察产业间互动关系和互动效应。研究发现：2012—2016年现代服务业的发展滞后于先进制造业，2017年后现代服务业的发展水平优于先进制造业；“两业”耦合协调度呈现起伏波动的特征且行业异质性明显，没有达到深度融合；先进制造业与现代服务业的双向促进作用明显，但存在非对称的互动关系且细分行业之间的互动效应具有差异，未实现行业间的充分互动。

Empirical Study on the Integration Development and Interaction Effect of Advanced Manufacturing and Modern Service Industry: Taking Zhenjiang City as an example

Based on the time series data of Zhenjiang from 2010 to 2020, the coupling coordination degree of advanced manufacturing and modern service industry is measured from the perspective of industry heterogeneity, and the interaction relationship and interaction effect of the two industries are investigated. The results show that the development of modern service industry lags behind advanced manufacturing industry from 2012 to 2016, and the development level of modern service industry is superior to advanced manufacturing industry after 2017. The coupling coordination degree of advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry shows fluctuation and obvious heterogeneity, but it does not achieve deep integration. The advanced manufacturing and modern service industry have significant two-way promoting effect, but there is asymmetric interaction relationship and the interaction effect between different industries is different, and the full interaction between industries has not been realized.