交通运输发展与经济增长的均衡分析

杨格概括了交通运输发展与经济增长相互作用的关系，但他认为这种相互作用关系是一种脱离均衡的运动。本文认为，如果将二者的相互作用关系理解为在理论模型中二者互为解释变量，可以将这种关系纳入均衡分析范式中。在给定外生变量条件下，即可求解均衡的交通运输发展规模与均衡的专业化生产规模。均衡规模理论上即是适度经济规模。当交通运输发展规模与专业化生产规模的实际状态处于失衡状态时，经济社会追求利益最大化的机制会使失衡自发地趋向均衡。由失衡趋向均衡的路径有三条：平衡增长战略；交通运输先行战略；交通运输滞后发展战略。如果技术条件或者制度安排发生重大变化，交通运输发展规模与专业化生产规模之间的均衡将会发生变动，即由旧的均衡趋向于新的均衡。规模报酬变动可以为交通运输发展与经济增长的均衡变动提供理论解释。

The Equilibrium Analysis of Transportation Development and Economic Growth

Allyn Abbott Young made an interaction analysis of transportation and economic growth, and he came to the conclusion that such is a movement of deviation from the equilibrium. In this paper, we consider the interaction as explanatory variables of both in the theoretical model, and then introduce them into the paradigm of equilibrium analysis. As given exoge- nous variables, we can figure out two equilibrium values of the development scale of the transport and the scale of the spe- cialized production. In the balanced scale, the proper economy scale in theory, when the actual development scale of the transport and the actual scale of the specialized production are in an unbalanced state, the mechanism of economic body pur- suing the maximum benefit will make both head for the balance spontaneously. Three kinds of development strategy, the bal- anced growth, the speed-up development and the lag development, all can make the state balanced. If the technical conditions or institutional arrangements show significant changes, the equilibrium values will also change to a new combination, where changes of returns to scale can support of the shift of equilibrium values of the transportation development and economic growth.