进出口间接作用及其介体与路径——基于三时期参数变结构协整方法的研究

本文运用三时期参数变结构协整方法,着重研究我国进出口对经济增长的间接作用,以及产生间接作用的介体与路径。协整结果发现,大多数考察变量与进出口之间存在显著的参数变结构现象。实证研究得出,进出口通过投资、人力资本、技术进步、消费与经济结构这些介体对经济增长的间接作用有正有负,而加总效应都是正值,出口间接作用的弹性测算值较大,而进口间接作用的弹性测算值较小。

Indirect Effects of Import and Export and Its Mediator and Path

This paper uses the variable structure co-integration of three-period parameters to focus on indirect effects of China’s import and export,and its mediators and the paths.This paper finds that there are significant variable structures for parameters between imports and exports and majority of variables.It also finds that investment,human capital,technological progress,consumption and economic structure are mediators;through these mediators,import and export have both positive and negative indirect effects on economic growth,but the total effect is positive;estimated elasticity of indirect effects of the export is large,while estimated elasticity for import is small.