中国国债效应的实证研究

本文建立了一个以国债为冲击的小型宏观经济计量模型,并运用1978～2001年的历史数据,得出国债对经济总量的弹性和乘数效应。进一步分析并得出结论:推行积极的财政政策,仍是中短期我国宏观经济政策选择的重要方面。但要提高公共投资的效率,应适当利用税收政策、转移支付政策和货币政策,以缓解国债压力,降低政府的债务风险。

The Analysis of China''''s National Debt Effect with Macro-economic Model

The paper discusses the effect of China' s national debt policy through establishing a macro-economic model.Through analysis with the macro-economic data from 1978 to 2001,the elasticity and accelerate are achieved.The main conclusions are as follows: vigorous fiscal policy is still the most important part within the context of macro-economic policies,further consideration is needed to adjust tax policy and optimize the structural of fiscal expenditure and monetary policy in order to enhance the efficiency of public investment and to lessen the pressure of national debt and lower the risk of government' s debt.