中国服务贸易出口周期波动的实证分析

促进服务贸易出口已经成为我国“十二五”时期重要的对外经济发展战略,而周期波动分析是考察和检测服务贸易出口运行态势的重要方法,但相关研究文献几乎还是空白.基于增长率直接法和增长率趋势法对中国服务贸易出口短周期、中周期、中长周期波动的识别和分析表明,1982年以来我国服务贸易出口经历了11次短周期波动、3次中周期波动和2次中长周期波动.随着经济全球化的不断深化,加强服务贸易出口周期波动和服务贸易出口预警方面的理论研究成为一项艰巨而重要的任务.

A Positive Analysis on the Cyclical Fluctuations of Export in Services of China

It is an important foreign economic development strategy to promote the export trade in services in the period of China’s "Twelfth Five-year Pplan" and the cyclical fluctuation analysis is an important method in inspecting and testing the operation situation of services export.However,related literature is almost blank.Based on the direct growth rate and its trends,the author analyses the short,median and median-long cyclical fluctuation characters in the export of China’s service trade;it shows that,since 1982,China’s export in services has gone through eleven short cyclical fluctuations,three median cyclical fluctuations and two median-long cyclical fluctuations.With the deepening of economic globalization,it is becoming an arduous and important task to strengthen the theoretical research on the cyclical fluctuation and early warning in services export trade.