A survival analysis of de novo co-operative credit banks

This paper studies the features of de novo Co-operative Credit Banks (CCBs) established in Italy during the 1990s. It shows that de novo CCBs in the start-up period are endowed with a higher default risk than long-run incumbent CCBs. Split-population duration models distiguish the determinants of duration and probability of default. The focus is on those determinants related to market structure. We find that duration is positively related to the market share of large banks. Conversely, duration is higher when there are no incumbent CCBs in the same market. Survival probability is directly related to the local level of GDP.All correspondence to Paolo Emilio Mistrulli. The authors thank Francesco Cesarini, Robert DeYoung, Roberto Di Salvo, Dario Focarelli, Eugenio Gaiotti, Leonardo Gambacorta, Giorgio Gobbi, Francesca Lotti, Fabio Panetta, Alberto F. Pozzolo and two anonymous referees for very valuable comments. Any remaining errors are those of the authors alone. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions with which they are affiliated.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: February 2004