我国城镇居民消费行为的协整研究及政策建议

文章依据1978-2010年间城镇居民消费与收入的样本数据,运用协整研究方法,对城镇居民的消费行为进行了实证研究.研究表明,城镇居民收入低,消费与收入之间存在长期均衡关系；城镇居民短期消费易受冲击,城镇居民的长、短期消费的乘数都较小,从而客观上形成城镇居民消费对经济增长的贡献率较低的现实；并且城镇居民消费的长期弹性、短期弹性都较小,消费增长过多地依靠收入增长,但其却很低；线性模型和对数线性模型都是可以选择的形式.对此提出了让城镇居民们也能体面地生活的政策建议.

Co-integration Analysis on the Urban Residents' Consume Behavior and its Policy Recommendation in China

Based on the urban residents’consumption and income data from 1978 to 2010 in China,used co-integration analysis method,this paper makes an empirical research on the urban residents’consume behavior.It finds that urban residents’income is low,and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urban residents’consumption and income,and the short-term consumption of the urban residents’is susceptible to be impacted.It also finds that the urban residents’long-term consumption multiplier and short-term consumption multiplier is still small,thus in words of the urban residents’consumption effect,there is objectively a low contribution on the economic growth,and the effect of the long-term flexibility and the short-term flexibility of the urban residents’consumption is also small,the consumption growth of the urban residents’depends on the income growth excessively.Furthermore,linear model and Log-linear regression model are usable.The paper proposes the policy recommendations that the urban residents can also live honorably.