A social forecast revisited |
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| Authors: | Roger Mitton Michael Willmott |
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| Affiliation: | a School of Computer Science and Information Systems, Birkbeck College, University of London, Malet Street, London WC1E 7HX, UK
b The Future Foundation, 70 Cowcross Street, London EC1M 6EJ, UK |
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| Abstract: | In 1971, the authors produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK. In 2001 they obtained survey data for comparison with the forecasts. The paper presents the original forecasts and describes the methods used to produce them, assesses their accuracy in the light of the survey data, and concludes with some reflections on the underlying forecasting methodology and on changes in leisure patterns. |
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