桂林市城镇体系空间扩张及驱动因子分析

研究目的：分析近20年桂林市空间扩张规模、形态及协同性分异特征及驱动因子，探索市域城镇化空间扩张地域分异规律及协调机理。研究方法：基于城镇体系和空间结构均衡理论，以空间扩张及其协同性指数为数据驱动，用地统计分析、空间插值及地理探测器等方法开展研究。研究结果：（1） 近20年桂林市城镇体系空间扩张及形态扩大呈增长趋势，渐趋形态以中心城市为核心、空间一体化驱动的点—轴聚集模式，城镇化时空扩张差异不断扩大，空间极化作用不断增强。（2） 大部分城镇人口、经济、社会扩张快于土地扩张，城镇化空间承载力及溢出效益不断提高，但增势趋于减弱；城镇化扩张强度与协同性分布普遍不一致，中心城市对协同性的极化效益不显著。（3） 人均耕地面积、人均消费品零售总额、第二产业占比三个因素是空间扩张分异的主要驱动，各因子对空间分异的影响及其交互作用都趋于增强，其变化具有空间集聚特征。研究结论：城镇化空间扩张是推进区域要素流动、资源配置及其协调性的重要动因，统筹城乡发展和共同富裕需要均衡协调空间扩张的规模、形态及其综合效益。

Analysis of Spatial Expansion Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban System in Guilin City

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the urban expansion scale, shape, coordination and divergence characteristics and its driving forces in Guilin City in recent 20 years, to explore the rules concerning spatial expansion of urbanization in the municipal level and synergy mechanism. Based on the theory of urban system structure and spatial equilibrium, driven by the spatial expansion and its synergetic index, the research methods of statistical analysis, spatial difference value and geographic probe are used. The results show that: 1) the spatial expansion and morphological enlargement of Guilin City have been on an increasing trend in the last 20 years, forming a point-axis aggregation pattern with the central town as the core and driven by spatial integration, widening differences in the spatial and temporal expansion of urbanization and an increasing role of spatial polarisation. 2) Most towns are expanding faster in population, economy and society than in land, and the spatial carrying capacity and spillover benefits of urbanization are increasing, but the increase is weakening; the intensity of urbanization expansion is generally inconsistent with the distribution of synergy, and the polarising benefits of central cities on synergy are not significant. 3) The main factors affecting the spatial expansion of the urban system in Guilin are three factors, such as the area of cultivated land per capita, the total retail sales of consumer goods per capita and the share of secondary industry, etc. The influence of each factor on the spatial differentiation and its interaction tend to increase, and their changes have the characteristics of spatial agglomeration. In conclusion, the spatial expansion of urbanization is an important motivation for the co-ordination of factor allocation, resource flows and their coordination, and is of great significance in promoting urban-rural coordination and common prosperity.