国家中心城市建设的绿色发展效应研究——基于285个城市的准自然实验

基于2004-2018年中国内地285个城市面板数据，构建倾向得分匹配双重差分模型，评估国家中心城市建设对绿色发展的政策效应，并对地区间发展差异进行拓展性分析。研究发现：国家中心城市建设能够有效促进城市绿色全要素生产率提升。其中，在地区层面，东部地区国家中心城市建设的政策效应保持稳健，中西部地区的政策效应尚未凸显；工业发展、教育水平和外资引入是现阶段国家中心城市建设发挥绿色效应的关键路径，而经济发展则是重要的潜在渠道。据此提出全方位深入推进国家中心城市建设，发挥其引领绿色发展的整体驱动效应和示范效应，同时，兼顾城市综合发展异质性特征，注重国家中心城市建设有序推进的对策建议。

Research on the Green Development Effect of National Central City Construction:Quasi Natural Experiments based on 285 Cities

Based on the panel data of 285 cities in China from 2004 to 2018, the paper constructs a dual difference model of tendency score matching, evaluates the policy effect of National Central City Construction on green development, and makes an expanded analysis of the heterogeneity of regional development. The results show that the construction of national central city can effectively promote the growth of urban green total factor productivity. At the regional level, the policy effect of the construction of national central cities in the eastern region remains stable, while the central and western regions have not yet been highlighted. Industrial development, the improvement of education level and the introduction of foreign capital are the key paths to play the green effect of national central city construction at this stage, while economic development is an important potential channel. Accordingly, it is proposed to promote the construction of national central cities in an all-round way, and give full play to the overall driving effect and demonstration effect of leading green development. Considering the heterogeneity of urban comprehensive development, we should pay attention to the orderly development of national central city construction.