我国货币政策调整对债券市场及其参与者的影响分析

本文在对2003年以来我国货币政策重大调整进行简要回顾的基础上,通过对中国债券总指数走势的解读,分析了我国债券市场波动与货币政策调整的互动关系,认为货币政策主要可以从资金供应和心理预期两方面对债券市场施加影响,每一次货币政策的变化都会直接导致债券市场行情的大幅上扬或下挫。在这一过程中,作为中国债券市场参与主体的商业银行,由于市场规模、市场机制、交易工具、参与者性质等方面的限制,很难主动地对自身的债券投资组合进行调整,以规避风险。为解决上述矛盾,作者认为,应该从商业银行(市场参与者的主要代表)、债券市场本身以及市场监管者和政策执行者等几方面着手来完善和改进中国债券市场的结构和功能,从而增强以商业银行为主体的债券市场参与者的抵御风险的能力。

Analysis of the Impact of Our Monetary Policy Adjustment on Bond Market and Its Market Players

In this paper, significant adjustments to our monetary policy since 2003 are reviewed and the trend of general index of China's bond is analyzed before the interrelationship between fluctuation of our bond market and monetary policy adjustments is examined. It is believed that monetary policies influence bond market in two aspects, e.g. capital supply and psychological expectations. Each change in monetary policy would result in heavy gains or falls in bond market. As a major market player in China's bond market, commercial banks, straitjacketed by market scale, market mechanism, trading instruments and nature of ownership, cannot actively adjust their bond portfolio to avoid risks. To improve the structure and function of China's bond market so as to enhance the power of commercial banks as a major player to ward off risks, efforts should be made jointly by commercial banks, market regulator and policy executor. Improvement is also necessary in the bond market itself.