安徽省入境旅游流影响因素的实证研究

遵循重要性和代表性原则,遴选出影响安徽省入境旅游流的9个主要因素,依据相关统计数据,借助因子分析法,提取影响安徽入境旅游流的主要公因子,并运用双对数回归分析,确定其影响强度。结果表明:①9个影响因素可归纳为3个公因子,分别是经济与社会发展因子、基础设施与条件因子和外部风险因子。②经济与社会发展因子在2002年之前影响较小,此后影响越来越强,表明安徽经济社会持续发展,国际旅游吸引力日益提升,受到越来越多入境游客的喜爱;基础设施与条件因子影响一直处于缓慢增强的趋势,但2007年后影响渐趋下降,说明安徽旅游基础设施和服务体系日益完善,已不再是旅游业发展的主要障碍因素;外部风险因子影响大小一直处于优劣交替之中。③影响最为显著的4个变量,依次是安徽国内生产总值、我国入境过夜旅游者人次、安徽交通发展水平和主要影响事件;安徽外贸进出口总额、安徽旅游资源质量水平两个变量与安徽入境旅游流呈负相关。④格兰杰因果关系检验发现,安徽入境旅游是外贸进出口总额的格兰杰原因,即入境旅游促进进出口贸易的发展。

An Empirical Study on the Influence Factors of Inbound Tourism Flow of Anhui Province

Following principles of importance and representative, 9 main factors are selected in Anhui province inbound tourism flow. Based on the relevant statistical data. using factor analysis methnd, the paper extracts the main factors affecting Anhui in- bound tourism flows, and determines its influence strength using double-log-regression analysis. The results showed that： （1）9 in fluence factors can be divided into three common factors, which are economic and social develupment factors, infrastructure and condition factor and external risk factor; （2）the economic and social development factors affected little before 2002. then its influ- ence is slronger and stronger, which shows Anhui economic and social sustainable development and the growing appealing, and Anhui is more and more popular among international inbound tourists; infrastructure and condition factor has been slowly increas- ing. but after 2007, the effect becornes decreased, which shows Anhui tourism infrastructure and service system is increasingly perfect, no longer the main obstacle factors of tourism development; external risk factors affect has been in the merits of aher- nate;（3）4 variables influenced significantly, followed by Anhui＇s GDP, China＇s inbound overnight tourists, Anhui transportation dev,：lopment level and the main influence events; Anhui foreign trade import and export volume, Anhui tourism resources quality level are negatively related to Anhui inbound tourism flow. （4）The Grainger causality lest found that Anhui inbound tourism is the Grainger reason of total import and export trade, namely the inbound tourism promotes the development of irnport and export trade.