人民币实际有效汇率的构建方法研究

当今外汇市场上每天用于贸易交易的外汇交易量不到5％，95％以上都是与贸易交易无关的虚拟资本流动。但迄今为止，理论界和实务部门仍主要从贸易角度入手构建人民币实际有效汇率。本研究从国际收支即同时从经常帐户和资本与金融帐户角度考虑人民币实际有效汇率的形成机制，将相对生产率进步指标纳入人民币实际有效汇率权重的构成中，既吸收了篮子货币的优点，又能减轻由于非汇率对实体经济的冲击造成汇率的较大波动，从而保持一个较稳定的人民币实际有效汇率。论文的模型比IMF的模型更符合当代汇率的形成机制，论文预测了2009和2010年人民币实际有效汇率分别较上一年升值1．36％和1．17％。

Empirical Research of RMB(renminbi) Real Effective Exchange Rate

Nowadays, there are less than 5% of the foreign exchange transactions on spot market, more than 95% are international funds flow not related to trade transactions. But, so far, setting up the model of RMB real effective exchange rate, not only research sectors but also practical sectors are mainly dependent upon trade transactions. The paper build RMB real effective exchange rate model based on balance of payments, that is, considering the mechanism of it. Putting relative productivity progress indicator into the weights of it. The model can reduce the fluctuation of exchange rate when non exchange rate action impacts on practical economy, and reach the purpose of maintaining stable RMB real effective exchange rate. The model is priority to IMF after test. Forecasting that RMB real effective exchange rate will be appreciate in 2009 and 2010, respectively up 1.36% and 1.17% comparing last year of it.