美国需求端产业结构的变化及对中国的启示

对产业结构演化的研究都是从供给端计算的产业结构，本文构造了从需求端计算的产业结构并依此对美国需求端产业结构的演化进行了实证分析。研究表明，当年价所计算的美国需求端三次产业结构的变化小于供给端产业结构的变化；1970年以来美国第二产业的变化差异中近40%可以用外贸因素来解释。进而本文采取不变价计算了美国产业结构的变化，研究表明，自1970年以来按不变价计算的美国需求端的产业结构变化很小，且美国第三产业比例提升中有31%可以用不同产业价格因素变化来解释，44%可以用国际贸易来解释，仅有25%可以用第三产业收入弹性的变化来解释，因而收入弹性不是美国第三产业比例提升的重要原因。美国能够维持经常账户的逆差，将第三产业作为动力产业的根本原因在于美元的霸权地位。相比较而言，中国一直以来处于国际收支“双顺差”的状态，中国的具体国情和国家实力均无法满足大规模输出人民币使之成为其他国家储备货币的条件。

CHANGES OF THE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN US DEMAND SIDE AND THE ENLIGHTENMENT TO CHINA

Research on industrial structure evolution is calculated from the supply side of the industry structureThis paper constructed industrial structure calculated from the demand side and based on which analyzed the evolution of the industry structure of US demand side empiricallyStudies showed that changes in the structure of the three industries calculated at current prices in US demand side was less than that of the supply sideNearly 40% difference variation in the secondary industry of US could be explained by foreign trade since 1970Furtherly，this paper calculated the changes of industrial structure of US by constant priceStudies showed that the industry structure of US demand side calculated by constant prices substantially unchanged since 1970，and 31% raise proportion in US tertiary industry could be explained by the price factor of different industries，44% could be explained by the factor of international tradeOnly 25% should be explained by the changes of income elasticities in the tertiary industryTherefore，the income elasticity was not an important reason for the increase of the percentage of US tertiary industryUS maintains current account deficit and makes the tertiary industrial as the power industry，which attributed to the hegemony position of dollarsIn comparison，China has been in a state of “double surplus” in the balance of payments，Chinas specific national conditions and strength are unable to meet the demand for large scale output RMB as a reserve currency of other countries