我国股票指数与政策影响因素之间的关联度研究

本文在全面搜集影响股市涨跌的重要政策影响因素的基础上，根据政策变量对股市的冲击力度大小对其进行赋值，得出政策变量曲线，并采用SPSS相关性分析工具，计算政策变量曲线与股市涨跌曲线之间的关联度数值，同时通过格兰杰因果检验辅助验证政策变动与股市变动之间的关系。结果表明:该计量模型能够较好地解释政策变动和上证指数变动之间的关系。在正常的股票市场状态下，中国证券市场的波动明显受到政策影响，两者变化高度相关。因此，若短期经济政策经常出现非预期的频繁变动，将增加投资风险，从而加大中国股市的投资难度。

Research on the Relevance between China's Stock Index and Policy Influencing Factors

Based on the comprehensive collection of important policy factors that affect the rise and fall of the stock market, this paper evaluates the impact of policy variables on the stock market and obtains a curve of policy variables. It uses SPSS correlation analysis tool to calculate the correlation value between the policy variable curve and the stock market fluctuation curve, and Granger causality test to assist in verifying the interaction and relationship between the policy change and the stock market change. The results show that the econometric model can better explain the relationship between policy changes and Shanghai stock index changes. Under the normal stock market conditions, the volatility of China's securities market is obviously affected by policies, and the two changes are highly correlated. Therefore, if the short-term economic policy changes frequently and unexpectedly, it will increase risks and difficulties of investment in China's stock market.