宏观政策调控下的银行风控措施会改变不动产消费效用吗?——以四川省和青海省为例

不动产效用在多重影响因素的共同作用下，呈现出多元化趋势。不动产消费效用和不动产投资效用是消费者购买和投资不动产获得的主要效用；除此之外，受政策溢出效应、金融机构风险控制水平以及心理安全边际的影响，消费者购买或投资不动产还可获得更多的效用。本文基于系统理论和VAR模型对政策溢出效应、商业银行风控效用和心理安全效用与房产价格的关系以及个人年收入和房价的关系进行验证。结果表明:政策溢出效应、商业银行风控效用和心理安全效用会对房产价格产生影响；消费者的年收入作为中介变量对平均房价具有显著影响；仅仅增加土地供给和限购并不能显著抑制房价上涨；改变银行的信贷规模能改变房价走势；心理安全边际和银行风控水平及不动产能够带来的其他效用会影响房价。

Will Bank Risk Control Measures under Macro Policy Control Change the Utility of Real Estate Consumption?

The utility of real estate presents a diversified trend under the joint action of multiple influencing factors. Real estate consumption utility and real estate investment utility are the main utilities obtained by consumers when purchasing and investing in real estate. In addition, influenced by policy spillover effect, financial institutions' risk control degree and consumers' psychological safety margin, consumers can get more benefits when buying or investing in real estate.Based on the system theory and VAR model, this paper verifies the relationship between policy spillover utility, risk control utility and psychological safety utility of commercial banks and real estate price, as well as the relationship between personal annual income and house price. The results show that: policy spillover utility, risk control utility of commercial banks and psychological safety utility have impacts on real estate prices; and as an intermediary variable, the annual income of consumers has a significant impact on the average house price. Only to increase the supply of land and restrict the purchase of land can not significantly inhibit the rise of house prices, but to change the credit scale of banks can alter the trend of house prices. Other effects brought by psychological safety margin of customers and the degree of bank risk control also exert some influence on house price.