正式和非正式环境规制碳减排效应的时空异质性与协同性——对2007—2017年新疆14个地州市的实证分析

环境规制是为保护和改善环境而对经济主体的污染物排放行为进行约束，其中正式环境规制体现了政府保护环境的主动性，非正式环境规制则反映了居民保护环境的自觉性。正式和非正式环境规制具有目标一致性，但规制主体和规制手段不同，因而其污染物减排效应既具有协同性，也具有异质性；同时，由于经济发展阶段、地区产业结构、居民收入水平等规制环境的不同以及规制实施时间的不同，正式和非正式环境规制的污染物减排效应表现出显著的时空异质性。采用2007—2017年新疆14个地州市相关数据的分析表明：从整体上看，正式环境规制具有显著的碳减排效应，非正式环境规制虽然对碳排放强度的影响不显著，但可以强化正式环境规制的碳减排效应；从时间异质性来看，正式环境规制的碳减排效应及其与非正式环境规制的协同效应在2012—2017年强于2007—2011年；从空间异质性来看，正式环境规制在北疆地区具有显著的碳减排效应，而在南疆地区对碳排放强度的影响不显著。进一步的分析发现：在新疆地区，随着经济发展水平的提高，正式和非正式环境规制均从与碳排放强度正相关转变为负相关，且正式环境规制的这种转变先于非正式环境规制。总体来看，在碳减排过程中，正式环境规制的作用强于非正式环境规制并先于非正式环境规制发生作用，在污染物排放较多的地区环境规制的碳减排效应更强。因此，一方面，政府要进一步提高保护环境的主动性，增强正式环境规制的针对性和有效性，后发地区还应提高对转入产业的环境规制强度；另一方面，要不断提高居民收入和素质，促进社会组织发展，增强居民保护环境的自觉性，以有效发挥非正式环境规制的碳减排效应及其与正式环境规制的协同效应。

Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity and Synergy for the Effect of Formal and Informal Environmental Regulation on Carbon Emission Reduction: Empirical Analysis of 14 Prefectures of Xinjiang during 2007-2017

Environmental regulation is to restrict pollutes emission of economic main bodies for protecting and improving environment, among which formal environmental regulation embodies the activities of environment protection by governments, however, informal environmental regulation reflects the self-consciousness of environment protection by the inhabitants. Formal and informal environmental regulation is consistent in their aim but they are different in regulation main body and regulation method so that their pollutes emission reduction effect has both synergy and heterogeneity. At the same, because the regulation environment of economic development stage, regional industrial structure, inhabitant income level and so on is different and because the time for the regulation implementation is different, the pollutes emission reduction effect of formal and informal environmental regulation demonstrates obvious spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The analysis by taking the relevant data of the 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2007 to 2017 shows that formal environmental regulation has significant carbon emission reduction effect as a whole, although informal environmental regulation has insignificant effect on carbon emission reduction, it can intensify the carbon emission reduction effect of formal environmental regulation. From the perspective of time heterogeneity, the carbon emission reduction effect of formal environmental regulation and its synergy effect with informal environmental regulation are stronger during 2012-2017 than that during 2007-2011. From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity, formal regulation has significant carbon emission reduction effect in north Xinjiang area but has insignificant effect in south Xinjiang area. Further analysis finds that, in Xinjiang, with the improving of economic development, the correlation between both formal and informal environmental regulation and carbon emission intensity become negative from positive, and the change of formal environmental regulation goes ahead of informal environmental regulation. Generally, in the process of carbon emission, the action of formal environmental regulation is stronger than that of informal environmental regulation and takes action earlier, in the area with more pollutes emission, the effect of environmental regulation on carbon emission reduction is stronger. Thus, on the one hand, governments should further uphold the enthusiasm on environment protection, improve the direction and efficiency of formal environmental regulation and raise the regulation intensity in the latecomer areas, on the other hand, we should continuously raise the income and quality of Chinese residents, boost social organization development, increase the consciousness of environment protection of the residents, so as to bring into fully play the carbon emission reduction effect of informal environmental regulation and its synergy effect with formal environmental regulation.