风险与发展:进出口贸易的“双刃剑”效应研究

防范金融风险与推动经济高质量发展,是当前中国进出口贸易发展的经济新要求。本文通过理论与现实问题的匹配,运用时变参数结构向量自回归模型(SV-TVP-SVAR),观测冲击效应的时变轨迹,研究进口与出口贸易对风险与发展的短期、中期与长期的"双刃剑"效应。研究发现:一方面,进出口贸易会对风险与发展产生明显的冲击,其中,风险的响应效果呈多期抑制,金融危机的爆发是效果转向的拐点,进口贸易对发展的正面影响强于出口;另一方面,四个关键时点下进出口贸易均造成了不同程度的国内金融风险累积,不过中长期内会被稀释,对经济高质量发展的积极作用持续且较为乐观。

Risk and Development:The Research of "Double-edged Sword"Effect of Import and Export Trade

Through matching theoretical problems and practical problems and applying the SV-TVP-SVAR model to observe the time-varying trajectory of impact effect generated by impulse responses,this article studied the short-term,medium-term and long-term double-edged sword effects of import and export trade on risks and development.The results show that:On the one hand,import and export trade has obvious impact on risks and development.The impact on risks presents a multi-period inhibition effect and the outbreak of the financial crisis is the turning point of this effect.The positive impact of import trade on development is stronger than that of export trade.On the other hand,at the four key time points,both import and export trade have caused different degrees of accumulated financial risks,but the risks will be diluted in the medium to long term.The positive effect of import and export trade on high-quality economic development is sustained and optimistic.