税收、政府支出与消费变动的关系——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

基于霍尔不确定条件下的消费理论,建立了一个分析消费决策的模型,并利用我国1992-2008年的省际面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示,减税与扩大政府支出都对消费有正向影响;投资收益的增加则会减少消费。在经济衰退时,减税和增加财政支出是提高消费、扩大内需的有效手段。在当前经济脆弱时期,采取积极的财政政策,扩大在民生领域的财政支出,是带动当前经济增长和奠定未来发展基础的最佳政策选择。

On the Relationship between Tax,Government Expenditures and Consumption Changes: An Empirical Analysis with Provincial Panel Data

According to Hall's theory about consumption under uncertainty,this paper constructs a model of consumer decision analysis to conduct an empirical test with China's provincial panel data from 1992 to 2008.The result indicates that both tax-cuts and increase of government expenditure have a positive effect on consumption,while the increase of returns of investment will reduce consumption.So during the economic recession,tax cut and increase of government expenditure are both effective means to enhance consum...