中国省际劳均收入的收敛研究——基于核密度函数和Markov随机过程理论的分析

采用核密度函数和Markov随机过程理论研究了我国省区劳均收入分布的动态演变和发展趋势。研究发现,改革前我国省区劳均收入为多峰分布,其遍历分布为偏向低收入的双峰分布;改革后,劳均收入分布经历了从多峰到单峰再到双峰的演变过程,其遍历分布为偏向高收入的双峰分布。从长期发展趋势看,改革后我国多数地区将会收敛于高收入区间。

Research on Convergence in Income per Worker across Chinese Provinces:An Analysis Based on Kernel Density Function and the Theory of Markov Stochastic Process

This paper adopts kernel density function and the Theory of Markov Stochastic Process to study dynamic evolution and trends of Chinese provincial income per worker distribution.The results show that the distribution is multi-modal in pre-reform period,while its ergodic distribution is bi-modal but skewed in low income side.However,in post-reform period the distribution evolves from multi-modal to mono-modal,and then to bi-modal,while its ergodic distribution is bi-modal but skewed in high income side.In a long-term trend,most Chinese provinces convergent to high income end.