中华自由贸易区:从假设到实践的可能性

面对区域经济一体化浪潮,内地与港澳、台湾分别签署了经济一体化协定,进而为两岸四地经济整合创造了条件,中华自由贸易区有可能从假设走向实践。分析表明,整体上四地经济一体化对各个经济体的影响是正面的,将促进经济和贸易的大幅增长。在此基础上,对建立中华自由贸易区的可能性、主要障碍进行了分析,并提出了合作模式、内外部关系等具体设想。

Chinese Free Trade Area:The Possibility of From Supposition to Practice

This paper analyzes the foundation and possibility of CFTA by using quantitative index,and finds that above-mentioned four regions are closed together with trade and investment,and have foundation and possibility to integrate into CFTA.In addition,this paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization amongst them,including real GDP growth,welfare change,terms of trade,industrial production output and so on,by Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP) model.The simulation results show that economic integration has positive effect on each economy,and improve economic and trade growth.Furthermore,this paper discusses possibility and obstacles of CFTA,and proposes suggestion on the pattern of cooperation and integration.