| 铁路客运量季节指数计算方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 常丽新.铁路客运量季节指数计算方法研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2006,28(7):78-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 常丽新 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学,土木工程学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 为在铁路客运量预测中消除季节性变化的影响,采用平均数季节指数法、移动平均趋势剔除法、最小平方趋势剔除法对2002年—2004年的铁路客运量计算季节指数,通过误差分析,说明最小平方趋势剔除法能更好地反映运量的季节变动状况,是预测的最佳选择方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 客运量 预测 季节指数 研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1421(2006)07-0078-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-18 |
Study on Calculating Method of Seasonal Index for Railway Passenger Traffic Volume |
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| CHANG Li-xin.Study on Calculating Method of Seasonal Index for Railway Passenger Traffic Volume[J].Rail Way Transport and Economy,2006,28(7):78-80. |
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| Authors: | CHANG Li-xin |
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| Institution: | School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 China |
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| Abstract: | In order to eliminate the influence of seasonal factors on the forecast of passenger traffic volume,the method of average seasonal index,moving average tendency outlier and least square tendency outlier are employed to calculate the seasonal index of railway passenger traffic volume from 2002 to 2004.Through error analysis,the essay indicates that the outlier method of least square tendency is better in reflecting seasonal change status of traffic volume,and is the best choice for the forecast. |
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| Keywords: | railway passenger volume forecast seasonal index research |
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