地方政府财政支出政策效果差异化分析——基于四川省面板数据

基于四川省1995—2006年面板数据,利用工具变量评估财政支出乘数模型并借鉴分位数模型思想,发现财政支出政策不利于缩小区域内经济发展差距,即对于经济发展水平越高的地方,财政支出效果越好,原因在于其资本利用能力,即财政支出对投资的溢出效应,造成第二产业增长幅度不同,最终呈现出财政支出效果不同.认识这一点对于在经济处于新常态背景下,有利于优化开发财政产业政策的作用空间.

Analysis on Effect of Local Government Fiscal Expenditure Policy: Evidence from the panel data of Sichuan Province

Based on the panel data of Sichuan Province from 1995 to 2006, using instrumental variables to evaluate the multiplier model of fiscal expenditure and the idea of quantile model, and finds that fiscal expenditure policy is not conducive to narrowing the regional economic development gap, that is, the higher the level of economic development, the better the effect of fiscal expenditure, because of its capital utilization ability, that is, the spillover effect of fiscal expenditure on investment, which leads to the negative impact Different growth rates of the secondary industry will eventually lead to different effects of fiscal expenditure. Understanding this is conducive to optimizing the function space of industrial policies for the development of fiscal products under the background of the new normal economy.