| Abstract: | Changes in exporter market shares in the Kuwaiti poultry import market over the period 1971–81 are analysed by three modelling procedures. Two traditional approaches, a first-order constant transition probability Markov model and a set of market share equations, are found to be of only limited use. As an alternative, a multinominal logit model of market share behaviour is estimated. The empirical results indicate that, in addition to relative price changes, domestic policy inducements for Brazilian and European Community exports are important in determining market share changes. A comparison of the explanatory abilities of the models suggests that the multinominal logit model is as least as good as traditional modelling alternatives with respect to econometric criteria. It is concluded that the multinominal logit model offers considerable promise as a tool for market share research. |
