补贴对中国企业出口行为的影响——基于配对倍差法的经验分析

文章利用配对倍差法控制内生性后,基于新新贸易理论,利用1999-2007年中国工业企业微观数据,经验分析了补贴对企业是否出口及出口规模的影响。分析结论是,补贴显著提升了企业的出口可能性和出口规模;相对于未补贴企业,补贴企业出口概率增长率高出30%-110%,出口规模增长率高出30%-50%;对外资企业的影响大于本土企业,对私营企业的影响大于国有企业;但补贴对出口规模的影响在入世后特别是近年来才显现。这意味着补贴对出口的影响可能存在门槛效应。从政策层面看,尽管政府可以通过补贴等政策手段帮助企业走出国门,但要在国际市场实现持续增长仍要靠企业自身的核心竞争力。

The Effects of Subsidies on Corporate Export Behavior in China: Empirical Analysis Based on Matching Difference-in-difference Method

This paper employs matching difference-in-difference method to solve the endogenous problem and empirically analyzes the effects of subsidies on corporate export and export scale based on new-new trade theory and the micro-data of industrial enterprises in China from 1999 to 2007.It draws conclusions as follows: firstly,subsidies significantly increase the probability of corporate export and export scale;secondly,the growth rates of export probability and scale in subsidized firms are 30%~110% and 30%~50% higher than the ones in unsubsidized firms respectively;thirdly,the effects of subsidies in foreign-funded firms are larger than the ones in local firms,and the effects of subsidies in private firms are larger than the ones in state-owned firms;fourthly,the effect of subsidies on export scale emerges after China’s entry into WTO,especially in recent years.It confirms the probable threshold effect of subsides on export.From the angle of policies,it suggests that governments can help firms to go abroad through policy measures like subsidies,but the sustainable development of firms in international market still depends on their own core competitiveness.