A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting

During the past decade, there have been some significant developments in technological forecasting methodology. This paper describes developments in environmental scanning, models, scenarios, Delphi, extrapolation, probabilistic forecasts, technology measurement and some chaos-like behavior in technological data. Some of these developments are refinements of earlier methodology, such as using computerized data mining (DM) for environmental scanning, which extends the power of earlier methods. Other methodology developments, such as the use of cellular automata and object-oriented simulation, represent new approaches to basic forecasting methods. Probabilistic forecasts were developed only within the past decade, but now appear ready for practical use. Other developments include the wide use of some methods, such as the massive national Delphi studies carried out in Japan, Korea, Germany and India. Other new developments include empirical tests of various trend extrapolation methods, to assist the forecaster in selecting the appropriate trend model for a specific case. Each of these developments is discussed in detail.