电子商务中信用风险生成机理及防范策略研究

近年来,随着电子商务中欺诈事件的增多,诚信缺失问题日趋严重,由此引发的信用风险已成为严重阻碍电子商务良性发展的重要因素之一。针对这一问题,文中运用博弈论工具,系统地分析了电子商务中交易双方在完全信息以及不完全信息这两种情况下,信用风险的生成机理,识别出影响信用风险发生的关键因素。通过分析得出,对欺诈行为的惩罚力度、贴现因子以及声誉等因素会影响信用风险的发生概率,并且与其存在反向相关关系。这意味着在电子商务中,对欺诈行为的惩罚力度越大,贴现因子越大以及企业为提高其声誉所做的努力越大,则在交易中发生信用风险的概率越低。最后,在以上分析的基础上,文中针对性地提出信用风险的防范策略,包括：①发挥电子商务中介监督职能;②加大对欺诈行为的惩罚力度;③进一步完善相关法律法规;④构建信任的文化环境,增强交易双方的信任关系。

The Study on Formation Mechanism of Credit Risk in E-commerce and Its Mitigation Strategy

In recent years, with the increasing fraud behavior in e-commerce, the absence of credit is more serious, and the credit risk caused by which has become one of the important factors preventing the quick development of e-commerce. Focus on this problem, this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of credit risk with complete information and incomplete information in ecommerce using game theory, identifies the key factors which affect the credit risk. It turns out that the penalty degree for fraud, discount factor and reputation affect the probability of credit risk and negatively relate to that. This means in e-commerce, the penalty degree for fraud, discount and the effort on increasing its reputation are higher, credit risk is less likely to come out. Finally, mitigation strategies are worked out based on above analysis, which include： （1）the intermediary should play a role in e-commerce; （2）enhance the punishment to fraud; （3）improve the relevant laws and regulations; （4）create an cultural atmosphere full of trust and enhance the trust between sellers and buyers.