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Probabilistic sophistication,second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion
Authors:Simone Cerreia-Vioglio  Fabio Maccheroni  Massimo Marinacci  Luigi Montrucchio
Institution:1. Department of Decision Sciences, Università Bocconi, Italy;2. Collegio Carlo Alberto, Università di Torino, Italy
Abstract:We study the interplay of probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion, three fundamental notions in choice under uncertainty. In particular, our main result, Theorem 2, characterizes uncertainty averse preferences that are probabilistically sophisticated, as well as uncertainty averse preferences that satisfy second order stochastic dominance. As a byproduct, Proposition 2 highlights a fundamental tension between probabilistic sophistication/second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion in the presence of nontrivial unambiguous events.
Keywords:Model misspecification  Probabilistic sophistication  Second order stochastic dominance  Subjective expected utility  Unambiguous events  Uncertainty aversion
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