货币政策与杠杆率的相关性研究

我国经济进入“新常态”之后增长速度出现明显下跌,同时随之而来的是杠杆率的快速上升。货币政策作为重要的宏观调控手段,是目前政府最青睐的实现“稳增长”和“降杠杆”的工具。本文采用中国2008-2018年的面板数据,通过构建含有控制变量的货币政策与杠杆率的动态面板数据模型来实证分析货币政策对杠杆率的影响。研究发现,杠杆率随着货币供应量的增加而提高。并由此提出了五项政策建议,一是持续将“降杠杆”作为目前防范系统性金融风险的重要任务,二是建立“宏观审慎”与“货币政策”的双支柱,平衡稳增长、去杠杆与防风险间的关系,三是在提高货币政策针对性和灵活性的同时,强调微观措施与结构调整,四是货币政策配合其他政策共同完成宏观调控,五是建立杠杆率动态监测模型。

Research on the Correlation between Monetary Policy and Leverage

After China's economy has entered the"new normal",the growth rate has dropped significantly,and at the same time,the leverage has risen rapidly.Monetary policy,as an important macro-control means,is currently the government's favorite tool for achieving"stable growth"and"reducing leverage".This paper uses China's panel data from 2008 to 2018,and constructs a dynamic panel data model of monetary policy and leverage with control variables to empirically analyze the impact of monetary policy on leverage.The study found that the leverage ratio increased as the money supply increased.Five policy suggestions are put forward accordingly.The first is to continue to use"reducing leverage"as an important task to prevent systemic financial risks.The second is to establish the dual pillars of"macro-prudence"and"monetary policy"to balance relationship among the stable growth,reducing leverage and risk prevention.The third is to improve the pertinence and flexibility of monetary policy,while emphasizing micro-measures and structural adjustments.The fourth is to coordinate monetary policy with other policies to complete macroeconomic control.The fifth is to establish a dynamic monitoring model of leverage rate.