江苏省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

改革开放以来,江苏省经济飞速发展。同时,江苏的对外贸易也出现了快速的增长。针对理论界关于对外贸易是否促进经济发展的争论,本文通过对江苏省1985--2004年的相关数据的实证分析,运用平稳性检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验等手段,揭示了进出口和经济增长存在长期的稳定关系。最后,为江苏省对外贸易乃至整个经济的可持续发展提出了相应的政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Jiang-su Province

In recent years, the economy of Jiang-su province develops rapidly. At the same time, the foreign trade including export and import also increased sharply. Regarding the controversy about whether foreign trade improves economic growth, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth by employing the measurement of cointegration test and causality tests according to the respective data of Jiang-su from 1985 to 2004. It indicates the economy in Jiang-su is export-inducing. At last, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the sustaining development of the foreign trade and the economy in Jiang-su province.