Economic sentiment shocks and fluctuations in economic activity in the euro area and the USA |
| |
Authors: | Bas van Aarle Marcus Kappler |
| |
Institution: | 1. Universiteit Hasselt, Agoralaan, Belgium 3. VIVES, K.U. Leuven, Belgium and CESifo Research Network Affiliate, Munich, Germany 2. Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, Germany
|
| |
Abstract: | Economic sentiment indicators can provide a wealth of information for macroeconomic policy formulation and analysis. Despite
this, economic sentiment is often neglected by mainstream economics. This article assesses whether there is a potential role
for economic sentiment to amplify business cycle fluctuations. This paper integrates the European Commission Economic Sentiment
Indicator data into an econometric analysis of the euro area business cycle. The investigation of the euro area economy suggests
that sentiment shocks do have an impact on important macroeconomic variables such as output, retail sales, and unemployment.
There is furthermore significant evidence that economic conditions and shocks affect economic sentiment. |
| |
Keywords: | |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|