基于现金流量指标的财务危机预警模型分析

由于企业生产经营得以持续的基本条件是获得足够的现金流量,本文以现金流为主线,探讨如何准确把握现金流量指标来进行财务预警。在指标的选取上采用了时差相关分析法,筛选出财务预警所需的先行或一致性指标。最后以上市公司的财务报表为数据来源进行实证研究,证明了现金流量指标确有超前的财务危机预警功能。

A Financial Early-warning Model analysis Based on Cash Flow Indexes

In view of the postulate of sustainable development for an enterprise is obtaining adequate cash flows,this paper discusses how to make the financial early-warning based on cash flow indexes,with cash flows as a thread going through the whole paper.Through time-difference correlation analysis,we pick up the leading index numbers and according index numbers which are needed in the financial early-warning, at last, we make an empirical study on the basis of the financial datum of listed companies in China's stock market, and proved that cash flow indexes indeed have advanced forecasting function towards financial distress.