我国城镇居民房地产财富对消费的影响分析

我国城镇居民资产积累已达到一定规模,其对居民的经济生活已然产生重要的影响。本文借助协整分析工具,结合中国的现实制度和宏观政策,通过建立关于消费的误差修正模型(VEC),运用最新季度数据实现了我国城镇居民房地产财富效应的检验。结果表明,长期内我国土地交易价格指数对消费的财富效应为正,房屋销售价格波动与消费变动负相关,而房屋销售价格与产权制度变迁的联合作用与居民消费正相关。长期以来,中国房地产市场的持续升温对家庭消费起到一定的刺激作用,其作用机制主要依赖于产权制度的不断完善。

The Analysis on the Impact of China's Real Estate Wealth Change to Urban Residents' Consumption

Asset accumulation of urban residents has reached to a considerable scale,which already has a major impact on the economic life of the residents.Taking advantage of cointegration analysis and combining with China's reality system and macroeconomic policy,this paper establishes the error correction model(VEC)of consumption.Using the latest quarter data,it achieves a test of the real estate wealth effect on urban residents in China.The results shows that the wealth effect of the price indices of land transact...