| 基于最小期望损失的供应链供货违约等级识别模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 高鹏,谢忠秋,王志华.基于最小期望损失的供应链供货违约等级识别模型[J].工业技术经济,2011,30(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 高鹏 谢忠秋 王志华 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏技术师范学院,常州,213001 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文全面研究了引起供应链供货违约的各种原因,从供应商自身因素、客户需求、双方信息集成以及供货渠道中的意外义素4个维度构建了一套供应链供货违约二级指标体系,用先进的模式识别技术定量解决了供货违约严重程度识别的问题。先用主成分分析法降低了指标维度,接着用多维正态分布分类模型衡量了每种违约等级发生的后验概率,最后在合理构造损失矩阵的基础计算出每种决策产生的期望风险,并依此做出违约等级的识别决策。通过实例计算表明该方法是可行的,识别结果具有一定的客观性。
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| 关 键 词： | 期望损失 主成份分析 后验概率 模式识别 供应链 供货违约 |
The Supply Default Level of Recognition Model of Supply Chain Based on the Minimum Expected Loss |
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| Gao Peng,Xie Zhongqiu,Wang Zhihua.The Supply Default Level of Recognition Model of Supply Chain Based on the Minimum Expected Loss[J].Industrial Technology & Economy,2011,30(6). |
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| Authors: | Gao Peng Xie Zhongqiu Wang Zhihua |
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| Institution: | Gao Peng Xie Zhongqiu Wang Zhihua(Jiangsu Teachers University of Technology,Changzhou 213001,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper contracts a set of indicators system of SC supplier default on a comprehensive exposition of its causes from the four dimensions of suppliers own factor,customer demand,information integration and the accident in delivery channels and identifies the levels by using the pattern recognition technology.In the identification process,the paper reduces the dimension index in principal component analysis firstly,then it measures the posterior probability of each breach occurred with multi-dimensional nor... |
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| Keywords: | supply chain supplier default expected loss principal component analysis posterior probability pattern recognition |
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