基于货币供需变动的我国货币政策有效性研究

货币政策的有效性问题一直受到我国学术界的关注,特别是近年来中央银行针对愈演愈烈的通货膨胀及房地产投机现象,多次运用加息、提高存款准备金率等货币政策工具对宏观经济进行调控。本文运用货币政策有效性理论,并结合相关理论模型和统计数据,对1991~2010年期间的货币政策效果进行了实证分析。通过对理论模型与实际货币需求和货币供给变动的拟合程度进行检验,从货币供需变动角度分析了我国货币政策的有效性。

Study on the Efficiency of the Monetary Policy of China with the Change of Money Supply and Demand

The problem of monetary policy's efficiency is always a concern in the academic field in China.In order to solve the aggregating problems of inflation and profiteer activities in real estate industry,the Central Bank of China frequently used monetary tools such as interest rate hike,increasing the deposit-reserve ratio to manage the macroeconomics.This paper used relevant theories,models and statistic data to analyze the outcome of the monetary policies from 1991 to 2010.By examining the goodness-of-fit sta...