| 中国大陆赴香港旅游预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡勇,黄磊. 中国大陆赴香港旅游预测模型[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2008, 24(5): 41-44 |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡勇 黄磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东外语外贸大学国际工商管理学院,广东,广州,510006 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 , 广东外语外贸大学校科研和校改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 旅游人数预测是旅游业经济分析和发展战略规划中的关键问题。本研究选择适当的方法建立中国大陆到香港旅游预测模型，为制定香港旅游战略规划提供决策依据。首先建立包括六个因素预测理论模型，然后用神经网络、移动平均、时间序列平滑模型和多元回归方法建立旅游定量预测模型，结果显示神经网络模型优于其他三种模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国大陆 香港 旅游需求预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0594(2008)05-0041-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-02-22 |
Forecasting Model for Hong Kong's Tourism from Mainland China |
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| HU Yong,HUANG Lei. Forecasting Model for Hong Kong's Tourism from Mainland China[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2008, 24(5): 41-44 |
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| Authors: | HU Yong HUANG Lei |
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| Affiliation: | HU Yong,HUANG Lei (Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China) |
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| Abstract: | Predicting the number of future travelers is one of the three key questions to answer in economic analysis and strategy planning of tourism industry. The research attempts to build a predictive model for demands in travelers from main-land China to Hong Kong and provide valuable information in establishing a planning strategy for Hong Kong tourism. In this research, a theoretical model is constructed firstly, and then Neural Network (NN), Moving Average (MA), Time-Series, and Multiple Regression method are ... |
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| Keywords: | mainland China Hong Kong tourism demand prediction |
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