能源消费与经济增长关联特征的分解分析

经济增长促进能源的开发和利用,能源作为经济发展的动力因素同时也制约着经济的增长,正确认识能源与经济增长的关系,有利于中国能源发展战略政策的制定,确保中国经济健康、稳定、持续地发展。选取1980~2005年能源消费与经济增长数据,应用滤波和状态空间模型对能源消费与经济增长进行时间序列分解,从趋势成分分析两变量的长期均衡关系,从周期成分分析波动特征与协同关系,全面、细致地考察能源消费与经济增长的关联特征。

Analysis on the Decomposition of Correlative Characteristics between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

Economic growth promotes the exploitation and application of energy,and energy as an important factor restrains economic growth in turn.Therefore,correct understanding of the relationships between the two can help the policy establishment of China's energy development strategy,and ensure the healthy,stable,and sustainable development of China's economy.Data on energy consumption and economic growth from 1980 to 2005,and the filtering and the state space model are used to make a time series decomposition on the two factors.The long term equilibrium relationship between the two variables is analyzed by using trend components,while fluctuation characteristics and fluctuate cooperative relations are analyzed by using periodic components in order to find out the correlative characteristics between energy consumption and economic growth.