Military expenditure in post-conflict societies |
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Authors: | Paul Collier Anke Hoeffler |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Manor Road, OX1 3UQ Oxford, UK |
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Abstract: | Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the
government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects.
In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to
the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to
adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict
military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find
that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed
conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced
over the decade.
Received: April 2004, Accepted: December 2004,
JEL Classification:
H56, F35, O10 |
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Keywords: | Military expenditure peace dividend civil war |
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