煤电关系与电力"软短缺":一个产量约束模型

构建了一个具有产量约束的伯特兰价格竞争模型来研究中国电力短缺的问题,模型结论表明,即使在电力企业装机容量充足的情况下,由于煤炭产量的约束,电力需求的外生冲击仍有可能导致电力“软短缺”。同时,本文进一步探讨了旨在解决煤电矛盾的煤电一体化和煤电价格联动问题,认为这些措施只能暂时缓解煤电关系紧张和电力“软短缺”的问题,这些问题的解决需要进一步深化电力体制改革。

Price Co-fluctuation in Coal and Electricity Industry and Electricity Soft Shortage: A Constrained Price Competition Model

The recently experienced nation-wide electricity shortage affected our society and economy deeply. Although the shortage has been reduced greatly, we must discuss why this happened. In this paper, we created a constrained Bertrand competition model to explore the reasons of electricity shortage. Our model indicates that the exogenous shocks on electricity demand may result in soft shortage because of constrained coal production, even if the installed capacity is sufficient enough. We also discussed the problems of vertical integration and price co-fluctuation of coal and electricity industry. Our analysis concludes that these measures only can release the matters temporarily and we must resort to the market-oriented reform of electricity industry.