基于产出冲击的国际储备需求的跨期均衡分析——真实经济的视角

与现有研究相比,文章从真实经济的角度构造了一个简单的基于代表行为人的跨期均衡模型,探讨基于产出冲击和消费平滑的主动性储备需求的决定。研究表明:主动性储备需求与产出冲击发生的概率、产出冲击大小、代表行为人的相对风险厌恶系数以及代表行为人的主观贴现率呈正向关系,与经济增长速度呈反向关系,而与储备资产的相对价格呈现出非线性的关系。通过数值模拟发现,我国主动性储备约占2007年GDP的6%(相当于我国2007年底国际储备的12%),说明我国近年来增加的国际储备存在较大的被动持有部分,目前的国际储备持有额已经从一定程度上脱离了实体经济的基本需求。因此,除紧缩的货币政策外,我国政府还需要进一步运用汇率政策、贸易政策以及其他干预政策直接降低被动国际储备额。

An Inter-temporal Equilibrium Analysis of International Reserve Demand Based on Output Shock:Perspective of Real Economy

Compared with the relevant studies,we try to explore the determination of the output-shock-related international reserve demand based on an inter-temporal equilibrium analysis of the representative agent model.The main results are as followings: the active reserve is positively related to the probability and magnitude of the output shock,the relative risk aversion coefficient,the subjective discount rate of the representative agent and relative price of international reserves,while negatively related to economic growth rate.The result of calibrations implies that the initiative international reserve of China should be 6% of GDP which could only explain 12% of China's actual international reserve holdings.So the rampant buildup of China's international reserves in recent years can not be fully explained simply by smoothing consumption.So China's government should adopt further exchange rate policy,trade policy and other measures to reduce the passive reserve directly.