Forecast in Detail

The stronger than expected acceleration in economic growth through 2013 has started to generate an encouraging improvement in the public finances. This strength has been mainly observed in its impact on tax receipts, in particular VAT and stamp duty, which have been boosted by the strong recoveries in consumer spending and the housing market. This has led to central government receipts running 3.3% ahead of last year's level over the first nine months of the financial year, once the distortions caused by the transfers from the Asset Purchase Facility and the Swiss capital tax are excluded…