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| Abstract: | Data from Q2 point to a steep fall in GDP after April's consumption tax rise. The composite PMI was in contraction territory in April and May, and only just recovered to the 50 mark in June. Official data for retail sales and industrial output similarly show that spending and production were cut back in Q2. We estimate that GDP fell by 1.5% in Q2, driven by a reversal of Q1's strength in consumption and investment… |
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