人民币成为区域主导货币的实证研究——基于汇率视角的考察

从历史和现实的视角看,如果说布雷顿森林体系的崩溃导致了欧洲货币体系的形成和欧元的诞生,那么美国金融危机引发的国际货币动荡正在使东亚各国脱离美元本位,寻找区域内稳定的货币锚,而人民币则有可能成为东亚区域内首选的货币锚。本文拟从多边汇率相互影响的视角出发,实证分析人民币汇率变动态势及其与东亚其他货币之间联动关系的变化(包括其它国际货币汇率的变动对东亚其它货币之间关系变化的比较),从而揭示人民币成为区域锚货币、成为区域主导货币的可能性及其途径、进而了解人民币经济区形成的条件和趋势。

Empirical Study on RMB as Regional Dominant Currency: An Exchange Rate Perspective

From the perspective of history and reality,If the collapse of the Breton Woods system led to the formation of the European Monetary System and coming into being the Euro,so the U.S.financial crisis triggered the international monetary turmoil,which is making the East Asian countries separate from the U.S.Dollar Standard and Search for stablecurrency anchor in the region.RMB may become the preferred currency anchor in East Asia.This paper analyses from the interaction of multilateral exchange rate,studies t...