分析师的盈利预测偏差与本地优势

分析师在金融市场中起着重要的信息中介作用,其信息来源及获取方式会直接影响信息处理的质量。本文从分析师对企业年度盈利预测的偏差出发,基于对分析师与公司地域关系的实证研究,发现分析师在预测那些所在地与分析师隶属的机构同属一个省份的公司时,预测结果更加准确,这种本地优势与公司高成长性及公司国有性质显著相关。研究还发现,我国分析师的本地优势与个人本身的乐观性并无关系,可能更多与信息优势相关。

China's Analysts Earning Forecast Errors and Home Advantage

This article researches the regional relation between analysts and companies based on the annual earnings forecast bias.It was found that analysts' forecasts in the home province are more accurate,and this home advantage is significant correlation with the high-growth and state-owned companies.The home advantage of Chinese analysts is not connected to their optimism,but may be more relevant with information superiority.