泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的适应性

本文介绍泰勒规则的基本模型及其理论扩展,对泰勒规则的理论与操作进行评述,并结合中国实际,展望泰勒规则在中国的应用前景.文章认为,泰勒规则反映了近年来西方国家货币政策实践的本质,能够作为货币政策操作的理论依据和参考基准.就中国而言,由于利率市场化进程的滞后和货币政策传导机制的低效性,泰勒规则的实施还有一定困难.不过,随着利率市场化机制的形成与利率弹性的增大,利率有可能比货币供应量更适宜作为中国货币政策的中介目标.

Taylor Rule and Its Application in Chinese Monetary Policy

This paper introduces the basic model and theoretical development of taylor tule, reviews the characteristic of taylor rule and analyzes the applicability of taylor rule in China according to Chinese condition and practice. The taylor rule captures the essential factors affecting the monetary policy and can become the theoretical basis and referenced measure. On account of the lag of marketlization interest rate and the inefficiency of conduct of interest rate channel in China, taylor rule cannot be applied to China. However, with the advance of interest rate marketlization and the increase of elasticity in interest rate, interest rate will be more appropriate to be the intermediate target of monetary policy in China.