中国鸡蛋价格波动预警研究

鸡蛋价格预警模型的构建中需要注意其生长周期及季节特征，并考虑通货膨胀因素。基于中国鸡蛋价格的波动特征，宜用黑色预警模型构建其预警系统；预警系统中，选择鸡蛋价格波动率作为警情指标，以物价原则划分警限，根据ARIMA模型对鸡蛋价格的预测结果进行警度预报。预警结果显示，2011年中国鸡蛋价格波动将会比较剧烈，警情较为严重，需要消费者、生产经营者及相关部门关注，以便能及时采取有效措施规避风险，稳定鸡蛋市场。

Research on Early Warning about Volatility of Egg Prices in China

In the construction of early warning model for egg prices volatility, the factors such as egg production period, seasonal characteristics and inflation should be considered. Based on volatility characteristics of Chinese egg prices, black early warning model should be used to construct its early warning system, in the early warning system, egg prices volatility rate should be selected as warning index and commodity price principles should be used to divide warning limitations, according to ARIMA model, prediction results of egg prices are used to give warning forecast. The results of early warning system show that the Chinese egg prices fluctuation will be serious during 2011, that the situation is relatively severe and that consumers, businessmen and related departments are needed to pay attention to it so that effective measures can be taken to avoid the risk and to stabilize egg market.